In 2023, the power battery industry will enter a stage of structural overcapacity, the overall growth rate will slow down, and the competition among enterprises will become more intense. The industry’s full-year data has not yet been finally announced, but the overall situation has been determined.
According to the latest data released this month by South Korean research institution SNE Research, from January to October 2023, the total installed capacity of global power batteries reached 552.2 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 44%, which has exceeded the whole of last year, but the growth rate has dropped sharply compared with last year. In 2022, the total installed capacity of global power batteries was 517.9 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 71.8%.
CATL retains global and Chinese market crown
2023 , CATL (300750.SZ) firmly occupied the world’s number one throne and is expected to top the list for the seventh consecutive year. Its installed capacity was 203.8 GWh, exceeding the whole of last year, and its global market share increased to 36.9%.
According to SNE, CATL’s power battery installation volume will continue to show a high growth trend. “In addition to being used in the main models in the Chinese market, its batteries are also installed in Tesla Model 3/Y, BMW iX, Mercedes-Benz EQS and other global models. on vehicles from leading vehicle manufacturers.”
Followed closely by BYD (002594.SZ), the power battery installed capacity is 87.5 GWh, with a market share of 15.8%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points from last year.
SNE analysis said that BYD’s low-price advantage has enabled its installed volume in the Chinese market to increase by 66.5% compared with the same period last year. In addition, BYD ‘s global market share is rapidly expanding due to increased sales of the mid-sized SUV Yuan Plus (Atto 3) and small car Dolphin, which are its main sales in the global market.
Global power battery installed capacity growth slows down
CATL, which dominates the list , or BYD, which is steadily improving, the current growth rate has slowed down significantly.
the growth rates of power battery installations of CATL and BYD were 51.1% and 66.5% respectively. For the whole of last year, these two figures were 92.5% and 167.1%.
Among the top ten companies in the world, only LG Energy Solution and Panasonic had installation growth rates in the first ten months of this year exceeding those for the whole of last year.
SNE said in another research report that due to the continued global economic downturn and high interest rates, the realization of previous electric vehicle purchasing power, and the reduction or abolition of subsidies in major countries, the global electric vehicle market growth rate has slowed down and the demand for power batteries has also declined.
“But the slowdown is only temporary. As the prices of minerals such as lithium fall, battery and electric vehicle prices will stabilize, and the factors leading to the slowdown will disappear one by one,” SNE predicted.
Yiwei Lithium Energy (300014.SZ ), which was not on the list last year, grew by 128.1% and has risen to ninth place in the world this year, the fastest growing among the top 10 companies. Farasis Energy (688567.SH) dropped out of the top 10 list this year.
Another change in the list is that China New Aviation (03931.HK) has surpassed Samsung SDI and moved up to sixth place in the world. From January to October, China New Aviation’s market share was 4.7%, narrowing the gap with the fifth-ranked SK On to 0.4 percentage points.
In addition to the above four companies, the global top ten list also includes two Chinese companies, Guoxuan High-tech (002074.SZ) and Xinwanda (300207.SZ). In the first ten months of this year, the total market share of these six Chinese companies reached 63.3%.
Mainstream battery types
Lithium iron phosphate and ternary batteries are the two mainstream routes for domestic power batteries. With advantages such as safety and cost, the market share of domestic lithium iron phosphate batteries surpassed ternary batteries in July 2021 and has maintained its lead since then.
In the current electric vehicle market that emphasizes cost-effectiveness, the power battery market is gradually leaning towards the more price-competitive lithium iron phosphate batteries. At the same time, thanks to the increase in the proportion of lithium iron phosphate batteries adopted by vehicle manufacturers, CATL’s installation volume in markets other than China has nearly doubled compared with the same period last year.